Research · · 4 mins
AI Exposure vs. Job Openings: What BLS 2025–35 Projections Actually Measure
A 50-occupation audit of BLS’s largest projected-opening groups shows why task exposure, annual openings, wages and education requirements answer different career questions.
BLS’s November 2026 Career Outlook article places projected annual openings beside a relative “super intelligence” exposure category for 50 occupations: the 10 occupations with the most projected openings in each of five education groups. That juxtaposition is useful only if the two measures stay separate.
An opening can come from replacement needs or net employment growth. Exposure describes whether technology could assist or complete some occupational tasks. BLS explicitly says the exposure category does not measure job loss, productivity gains, automation probability or wage effects. This report audits the published 50-row comparison instead of turning exposure into a forecast it was not designed to make.
Exposure and openings are separate measures
BLS defines occupational openings as occupational separations plus net employment change. Most projected openings across the economy come from workers permanently leaving an occupation or transferring to another one, not solely from newly created positions. The Career Outlook article reports about 17 million openings per year across all occupations from 2025 to 2035.
Relative exposure is built separately from five external sources and groups occupations into very high, high, moderate and low categories. It describes the share and kind of tasks that could be assisted or completed by the technology. It does not convert into a probability that a worker loses a job or that an employer opens a requisition.
High exposure can coexist with many projected openings
The 10 bachelor’s-level occupations in the BLS comparison sum to 1,216,100 projected openings per year. Six are categorized very high exposure and four high exposure. General and operations managers lead this selected set at 285,000 annual openings; software developers have 95,300.
This coexistence is not evidence that AI creates or eliminates those openings. It shows why the columns cannot substitute for each other. The projection incorporates replacement and growth assumptions, while the exposure category describes task compatibility.
Bachelor’s-level occupations with the most projected annual openings
Active openings · projected annual openings
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| Occupation | Annual openings | 2025 median wage | Relative AI exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| General and operations managers | 285000 | $105,770 | High |
| Registered nurses | 180800 | $97,550 | High |
| Accountants and auditors | 115300 | $83,680 | Very high |
| Managers, all other | 100900 | $141,900 | High |
| Business operations specialists, all other | 98700 | $83,050 | Very high |
| Software developers | 95300 | $135,980 | Very high |
| Management analysts | 94100 | $101,860 | Very high |
| Elementary school teachers, except special education | 87500 | $63,970 | High |
| Market research analysts and marketing specialists | 82000 | $78,760 | Very high |
| Project management specialists | 76500 | $102,320 | Very high |
The top-10 sums are descriptive, not education-level market shares
Summing the 10 displayed rows within each group yields 3,929,000 annual openings for no formal credential, 2,355,500 for high school, 1,151,800 for postsecondary education below a bachelor’s degree, 1,216,100 for a bachelor’s degree and 249,800 for graduate degrees.
Those sums cover different shares of their underlying education groups—roughly seven in ten, four in ten, six in ten, four in ten and one half, respectively, according to BLS. They should not be compared as if each were a complete census of its education level.
Projected annual openings in each published top-10 group
Active openings · projected annual openings
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| Typical entry education | Selected occupations | Annual openings | Approximate coverage stated by BLS |
|---|---|---|---|
| No formal credential | 10 | 3929000 | Nearly 7 in 10 |
| High school diploma | 10 | 2355500 | About 4 in 10 |
| Postsecondary below bachelor’s | 10 | 1151800 | About 6 in 10 |
| Bachelor’s degree | 10 | 1216100 | About 4 in 10 |
| Graduate degree | 10 | 249800 | About half |
Long-run projections still need a current-job check
The 2025–35 figures are annual averages across a decade. They do not say that 95,300 software developer requisitions are open today, that those openings are evenly distributed across years, or that every posting has the same duties. Current employer postings remain the right evidence for location, level, pay range and interview availability.
For an international candidate, the occupation-level projection also contains no employer-entity, filing, worksite or work-authorization field. Use it to understand a field’s long-run context, then verify the current posting and the employer’s role-specific immigration position.
What to do with these findings
Use projected openings to compare long-run replacement and growth demand; use current postings to verify what employers are recruiting for now.
Read AI exposure as a task-overlap category, not an automation or job-loss probability.
Compare occupations within the same education definition and keep the selected top-10 denominator attached.
For immigration planning, confirm the exact role, employing entity and pathway. Neither an occupation projection nor an exposure category establishes H-1B, OPT or PERM support.
Sources & research notes
Sources
About this analysis
Original data through December 31, 2025. Later supplements retain the separate dates and scopes stated alongside their findings.
The original analysis covers 50 observed posting records in the role or employer group described in this report. Each posting is counted once within that cohort. Subgroup percentages use that subgroup’s posting count; favorable signals mean Highly likely or Likely.
How Openbound measures jobs and sponsorship signals →Key limitations
- This archived analysis is not a fresh extraction or a census of the U.S. job market. Historical postings may have closed, and employer records may omit other entities or sources.
- Historical filing activity and posting signals do not confirm support for an individual role or predict an offer, visa approval or green-card outcome.
- Role and workplace labels can be incomplete. Remote work does not establish international eligibility; confirm the exact role, location and employing entity.
Spotted an error? Request a correction. Updates replace the dated snapshot at this stable URL; source and data dates remain stated alongside the findings.
